Y2K

I finally was able to attend one of the meetings of the housing committee of the Downtown St. Louis Partnership yesterday. We joined the partnership going on 2 years ago, and for some reason that commmittee wasn't meeting, or didn't need new members or something strange. It was good to be present to hear what the discussion is about.

There was a banker, a developer, a builder, a commercial realtor, me and my assistant, and the folks from the partnership--a fairly diverse group.

We talked about our good occupancy and sale rate, we talked about the Downtown living Tour, we talked about the special Downtown section of the St. Louis Magazine. What really got the bulk of discussion is the new development coming online this year.

Kevin Farrell, at the partnership said that in the next year, with all the new construction going on, there will be almost 2000 condos available for pre-sale in the downtown area. Wow! Should loft buyer's be concerned about a "glut" as the Post Disgrace would have us believe?

The interesting thing about construction is it's financing.

Construction fincnancing has its own requirements that protect the lender and its investment. Our discussion at the meeting touched on the point that lenders are looking to firm up those requirements even more in the coming months. What is required to really get going on one of these monumental construction projects is solid sales base: something like 30% of the lofts must be under contract in order for the bank to begin disbursements for construction to begin. More benchmarks in sales and occupancy are sometimes thrown in to the process down the road too.

All these bank stipulations protect the banks, but they also protect the neigborhood and the consumers from the "over-building" myth that has been propagated by downtown naysayers since lofts were first introduced into St. Louis.

Downtown "Government Day"

The Downtown St. Louis Residents Association will be holding a meeting with the Mayor on Tuesday March 6th--6:30pm at the Tap Room. Don't miss the opportunity to represent downtown, meet the mayor, and make sure that the matters affecting downtown residents are voiced in this special opportunity.

Beyond the meeting with the mayor, as most of us know from the all of those hideous, non-real estate signs out there, that it's also the day of the primary elections. The 6th Ward, which makes up a substantial chunk of the Downtown West, will be holding an election for a new alderman. The current alderman for the 6th Ward, Lewis Reed is challenging for the Aldermanic Presidents post. It will be an important day for all the residents in the city to show up and participate.

From my position, I see how so much of the progress all over the city has taken place because of the businesses and investors that are willing to invest in the city neighborhoods. Sometimes what the headlines don't pick up is the countless hours our public servants work, the ideas and leadership they share, and the direction they continue to see for our city.

Tuesday is the day to "Suit Up and Show Up" and hopefully make the best choices for our continued success.

Politics of Deception

The rash of articles trashing the real estate market and more recently the mortgage business has been bizarre.

Every day this week an article in the Wall Street Journal has discussed how mortgage defaults are on the rise and that banks are not lending as much to the "sub prime" market.

Fine. Big Deal.

Yesterday the article was about how lending may even get more stringent to in the alternative markets.

Of course, the emphasis of the article was how this will continue to cast a dark cloud on the real estate market.

My only problem is that this series of articles has done absolutely everything to take the focus off the major slide the stock market is taking this week (remember, Dow Jones is the publisher of the Wall Street Journal).

Interesting though. I have a closing today that almost couldn't happen. Why? The all three title companies were too busy (read: lots of real estate deals closing).

The "East of Boyle" Phenomenon

Next week's issue of the St. Louis Business Journal will focus its special section on the topic "Highway 40: the Price of Progress."

I'm intrigued by this topic. People have been talking about the subject for months. Many look at 2007 as the year of reprieve. We thought all along that the contruction would "really" begin this year. Not just a few lane closures here and there, but the road would seriously be closed.

Many professionals thought that 2007 would be a busy year because all the people sitting on the fence from last year. In the city, East of Boyle, I predict a population surge.

City living has been the new trend, but this year will see the final shuffle before the highway shuts down. It will be interesting to see what the Business Journals take is for this regional event. My prediction is that I'll keep hearing what many of my recent buyer's have been saying, "just make sure I'm east of Boyle."

Fundamentally Flawed

There was a pretty big stir created the other day about downtown living when Cordish Company's plan for the new Ballpark Village was presented leaving the residential condos as an optional component in phase 1, based on market conditions.

Riddhi Trivedi-St. Clair, wrote a follow up article loaded with misguided speculation from within the real estate industry. All sources mentioned had one thing in commmon; none of them work in the downtown loft market. None of them sell lofts, and most likely, none of them live downtown. One person quoted was a developer from a competing neighborhood.

The overall slant to the article was a popular misconception; that there are too many lofts. The fact that some developer's are holding an inventory or that some projects struggle was presented as if it's a bad thing. When I work with buyer's downtown, they get my free analysis of pricing, and unfortunately not all lofts are priced where then need to be to sell.

My bottom line: Downtown's growth and renaissance over the past few years is a WONDERFUL THING! While the post disgrace may try to stir up controversy as a way of boosting its plummeting sales, it shouldn't be a concern. The downtown real estate market has growth, appreiation and constantly improving services.

Downtown Sales in December

Around Christmas, I always found myself watching Miracle on 34th Street with my family. A Santa that buy's real estate is something I can really get into.

This December, Santa's gift to the downtown real estate market may have been a decent drop in the interest rates and the end of all the bubble nonsense. Who know's?

Here are the sales as reported on the MLS for the month of December.

1123 Washington #402-----------------------------------------$154,900
2020 Washington #303-----------------------------------------$166,500
1136 Washington #310-----------------------------------------$177,000
1709 Washington #600-----------------------------------------$184,900
1720 Choteau #305--------------------------------------------$185,000
721 N 17th St #402---------------------------------------------$217,700
1136 Washington #406-----------------------------------------$218,500
1619 Washington #304-----------------------------------------$234,900
2201 Locust St. #410------------------------------------------$235,588
901 Washington #603-----------------------------------------$251,865
901 Washington #506-----------------------------------------$254,752
901 Washington #611-----------------------------------------$290,000
901 Washington #702-----------------------------------------$355,265
901 Washington #501-----------------------------------------$355,677
901 Washington #609-----------------------------------------$384,207
901 Washington #401-----------------------------------------$399,279
1123 Washington #203-----------------------------------------$423,345
1123 Washington #203-----------------------------------------$450,000
1136 Washington #906-----------------------------------------$525,000

Check out all the details here!

2006 Market Data Pierces Bubble Myth Downtown

In 2006, Scottrade bought the naming rights to the Kiel Center. I think the stock brokerage industry may have bought most of the media too. All the talk of the real estate bubble finally bursting forced its way into the psyche of prospective homebuyer's everywhere. They say all's well that ends well, and that really describes our downtown real estate market for the year 2006.

Year--#Sold-------$/Sq Ft----Ave.Days on Market-------Ave.Price
2006----221-------$164---------------93--------------$223,063
2005-----121----------$156-----------------209-----------------$256,678
2004------84----------$141-----------------233-----------------$187,976
2003------53----------$135-----------------170-----------------$214,890
2002------25----------$121-----------------248-----------------$186,674
2001------19----------$104-----------------194-----------------$233,908


The above data was taken off the local multiple listings service. This service, of course, doesn't include all the downtown sales in this past year, or in any year. I do agree with the trend that more lofts are selling and downtown population continues to increase.

My personal experience this past year was working with fewer first-time home buyer's and more mature and experienced buyer's. While there has been a great deal of talk about the I-64 reconstruction amongst buyer's, it seems that fact hasn't been the primary motivator of our typical buyer. As this year continues and lane closures begin, I'd be suprised if the number of buyer's with traffic concerns didn't increase exponentially.

One interesting piece of data that isn't included above, was that the average size of unit dropped from 1690 sq ft to 1453 sq ft. This is undoubtedly because of the number of smaller new construction units hitting the market this year. That trend should continue as The Adler Lofts and Ventana lofts near completion.

Look for more Downtown St. Louis Loft information throughout the year. Exciting things are going to happen.

Downtown St. Louis Partnership Meeting sets record

Today's meeting of the Downtown St. Louis Partnership and BOMA reportedly had a record attendance this year. The banquet room at the newly renovated Ballpark Hilton was packed. Never before has the topic been so pertinent to so many people. The highway 64/40 re-construction project doesn't seem to bother the people who have already embraced urban living. The majority remaining is running scared.

The meeting today seemed to cover mostly information that has already been made public. Of interest was the question and answer period where there seemed to be great support for incorporating plans for another Metrolink extension along with the highway plan.

The way I see it, with so much money going into this project and it having such a long term effect on our region, why not include mass transit? Avoiding the issue seems short sighted.

All and all it was a good program. The schedule and details presented can also be found on the MoDOT website.

False Advertising

There's been a trend in real estate advertising lately. Even though its both strange and anoying, I've been hesitant to criticize my fellow realtors.

There has been an increasing tendency for people with little or no sales in the downtown area to advertise themselves specialists in lofts or downtown experts.

As a realtor, I can look up the number of sales an agent has made downtown within a minute or two. While we were hesitant to proclaim any special knowledge of downtown, after several million in loft sales, it seemed appropriate. What's hard to understand is how anyone would advertise as a specialist in an area that they've never worked in.

There may be some that think this is about a fear of competition. The idea of more realtors entering the downtown market is really exciting to me actually. It means that there are people trying to learn the different variables that we have to deal with downtown that aren't a part of suburban real estate. It also might mean the end of hearing stories of realtors trying to dissuade thier clients from looking downtown by saying, "you don't want to go down there." Lastly, it means that when the developer's find other areas to develop, that there will be a community of professoinals available to keep the real estate market moving downtown.

To all the aspiring "downtown specialists," lets keep it real.

Dog Park on Hold Again

We're going to have a dog park, OK! Sometimes delays can be a good thing. Aparently there's a collaborative plan by a few residential developer's that would support infrastructure improvements around their developments. The plan is through a State program called MODESA Lucas Park, where we thought we could build a dog park, is one of the locations. The plan sounds like a great thing and I'm really excited about it. The hope is that being a state funded project doesn't limit the scope or timeframe of what could be done.
We'll be having another dog park meeting sometime in mid to late January to regroup and see what we can do to get something going now. In the meantime, we are in contact with developer's involved with the MODESA plans and might have some positive influence on what these developments can bring to the downtown community.

Tragic Accident at Syndicate

This morning a client forwarded this to us. What a terrible shame. Our prayer's go out to the family of this man.
News video of Syndicate accident.

Downtown Sales Surge-Interest Rates drop

With the Holiday's fast approaching, one wouldn't think that we would be experiencing a spike in sales activity downtown.

Of course, home sales have always been more impacted by the interest rates than just about anything. Rates have plummeted of late and are hovering around the lowest rates of the year. Weekly rate averages.

During a "Buyer's market" the supply is usually good too. So with plenty of selection, rock bottom interest rates, and lots of motivated seller's, Now is really a great time to buy.

Cheap Publicity

A couple of months back, we all heard that the Nationwide Crime statistics were available from Morgan Quitno Press in Kansas. The reason we all heard was because they had innacurately listed us as the most dangerous city in America. What a joke.

Granted, we all want to see crime reduced. With all the clean up going on throughout the city, and the large influx of people moving into the city, we all expect a positive impact on safety.

The bottom line though, is that the reports released during the World Series games in St. Louis were not an accurate portrayal, and were basically an attempt to sell books. Channel 5 sent out a reporter to ask a few questions. The televised interview really shows one thing: these reports should be the work of trained criminologists, not used to sell books.

Enjoy.

Here's the video of the interview.

Ultimate Model: Ballpark Village

Last nights meeting at the Cordish offices was an eye opening event. The past year or so, coverage of Ballpark Village has been informative but not adequate to give me a real feel of the neighborhood.

Our meeting was another example of the hard work of the Downtown Residents Association and their efforts to help people get knowledgable about downtown.

The meeting was led by Chase Martin of Cordish, and Bill DeWitt III of the Cardinals. I loved the way they described each block and street within the village as having a different focus. Starting with the "family block" at 8th and Clark to the "Live Music Block", to the "Cardinals Nation Block" and what they were looking to do to keep the village alive during offseason months. I found photos of the model online here.

Our interest being mostly the large residential component, I found that Phase 1 of Ballpark Village will include between 250-350 residential units and will be completed by approximately 2009. According to the current plans, these will be units above the currently planned retail. The three towers wouldn't be started until after the footprints of the buildings are complete. These tower's would house the bulk of the residential. After the meeting we discussed the residential component--which due to the mass of amenities in the area--would be priced higher than anything we've seen thus far downtown.

With Park Pacific being sold at $250-350 per square foot, we can only assume that a place in Ballpark Village won't be a value. I pressed for a figure, but left with the sound reasoning that they didn't want to release any number until a realistic construction estimate could be made. So we'll probably be waiting a while.

Value or not....I've got my place picked out already.

Food For Thought: The Rams on Monday Night

It's looking like the Championships are going to be limited to one this year, which is plenty. As I was watching the Ram's miss tackles and the referee's miss calls, I thought about some of the "mixed use" zones being developed downtown. If the Cardinals missed the playoffs this year and the Ram's were 9 and 3 and going into the playoffs, would the Ballpark Village idea be on life support with the Bottle District moving forward at full speed? Of course, the Ram's really don't have anything to do with the Bottle District except proximity to the dome.

There have been different renderings of the Ballpark village released to date, but tomorrow a model will be unveiled at the Cordish offices downtown. I plan to be there. I saw a flyer posted for it over the weekend. The meeting will be at 6pm Sharp at the Boatmen's Building (800 Market). Look for details here tomorrow.

Looking for a new post?

Lately we have been working to find some help. Based on the news media, you'd think all the real estate professionals would be scanning the help wanted pages. That doesn't seem to be the case.

Just after the loft tour, our assistant flew the coup. We need someone else and have been talking with people from all over. It's really a trip. So if you're out there and have an interest in real estate, downtown, or lofts, drop us a line at info@4SaleStLouis.com and attatch a resume. We'd love to hear from you!

Let Festivus Begin!

Festivus begins again this year with the First Friday Gallery Walk.
It should be a great chance to get out to some great downtown shops and see some great art all over town.

The two story gem at Jack Thompson that we have listed will be hosting artist SJ Hammack's works from 5-9pm. Wine & Cheese will be provided. Despite the weather, we are expecting a nice turnout.

For information on what is being held open, visit the downtowngallerywalk.com
and SJ Hammacks website

Put on your boots and come on over!

Power to the People

Last week I stayed up to 3:30am watching election results and listening to political speculation. It's something I can only handle every couple years or so. Thankfully, the elections tonight won't be quite as complicated.

The Downtown St. Louis Residents Association will be filling some board positions tonight at their quarterly meeting. 6:30pm at Jack Patricks (1000 Olive) This group really works to make downtown a better place to live. There's no reason not to participate!

One added incentive, the people that are involved love downtown too. So you will have something in common already.

This Place is for the Dogs!

For quite some time now, there has been a movement to put a dog park downtown. At the last residents meeting, a committee was mentioned to take some plans and make them a reality. Presently petitions are being circulated to take a portion of Lucas Park and turn it into an attractive fenced park for dogs to mingle freely. This is a win-win situation for downtown. For more information, email me--our next meeting is scheduled for 11/20.
petition

Detroit Tries To Compare

One great thing about the World Series, other than a St. Louis Victory, At Home in front of thousands of crazed fans, was the surge of cash and attention into the downtown area. My friend Chris, will be happy to see his relatively new / old restaurant on Olive at 7th, Teutenbergs was mentioned in this Detroit News article It is a pretty good article about how our state tax credits are superior to what is available in Michigan and that there was greater momentum (comparaed to Detroit) in our downtown according to the author.

Having never been to Detroit, I wouldn't know.

Oh, yeah, and there's ballpark village too. What a time for the Redbirds to pull together a World Series Championship! The deal with the city was going to happen anyway, but what timing.

This graphic in the Post-Disgrace didn't give me the clarity I'd hoped to have. The spoof article in the RFT that talked about the email combat going on between some of the key players in Ballpark Village gave me a Picaso-esqe visual of what 'could be.'
Despite the fact that it was clearly a joke, that article really got me wondering how the whole village was going to come together. I look forward to seeing more to come but overall I have a great feeling about how this project will tie together downtown. Looking at a map of downtown--5 blocks to the north of the new Village is the luxury condos being built in the shell of St. Louis Center with several other buildings filling in around the Old Post Office. The new added investment by the Cardinals organization and the 30% public bonds is not only helping the continued re-birth of downtown but also a sign of confidence from our storied summer residents.