Downtown's Dump

Yesterday I was downtown with some clients and saw something disturbing. A Jefferon County sherrif's deputy was dropping someone off at the New Life Evangelistic Center along with their belongings.

Whenever I have heard St. Louis City officials address the topic of homelessness, they always mention that we should encourage other areas to establish services to assist the homeless so that they all don't have to come to downtown St. Louis.

I would encourage all readers of this post (both of you) to drop the following people a line. In reading the Jefferson County web page a bit, they discuss the same crap that any other county website does, providing services to residents and the like. In this case, the service is a ride in a police car across 2 different county lines so that the service becomes our problem.

All this aside, Downtown is still the place to be.

Jeferson County Sheriff

Oliver "Glen" Boyer

Jefferson County Commissioner

Chuck Banks

St. Louis City Population Slant

The downtown lofts were mentioned in a NY Times article that generally seemed to have a negative slant on our little urban renaissance here in St. Louis. What a shocker.

In question was whether the city population is dropping.

The writer seemed to be framing the piece to imply that because St. Louis had goofy report from Morgan Quitno Press, had police officer's involved in allegedly criminal activity (taking World Series tickets from scalper's) and schools that have lost accreditation--that people have continued to flee from the city.

The writer had the same critical style of the Post Disgrace writer that tried to trash the downtown neighborhood a few months back. Saying of city officials "Their optimism is based on a flurry of downtown development since 2000, including hundreds of loft condominiums, boutiques and restaurants." While the downtown neighborhoods have really been the crown jewel of St. Louis development, the development in Lafayette Square, Central West End, DeBaliviere Place, Benton Park, Tower Grove, McKinley Heights, Fox Park, Old North St. Louis and many other areas has been equally impressive. Areas that were riddled with "For Rent" signs today are owner-occupied, and examples of urban renewal.

When I think of the prospective drop in population, I think of the loss of the many residents of downtown's Ford Apartments and the much smaller population that will replace the former residents in when the building is re-opened as large luxury condominiums.

The rebuilding process taking place in most neigbhorhoods continues. Are we really loosing in the population game or do we just have another disgruntled Met's fan?

It's true. City services such as police and public education need to continue to improve. From what I've seen, it won't be long.

PS. For a shirt with the above emblem, visit STL-STYLE online

Fallacies of Public Perception

I recently got a great comment from a nameless fellow blogger that seemed to be a perfect example (despite the massive run-on sentence) of some of the misinformation that I hear too often about downtown real estate.

Prices are dropping too! I know you're on the inside, but I'm one of those young up and comers so to speak that these lofts are suppose to target, yet no one I talk to would move downtown including me and I work downtown and look at these everyday.

I consider prices dropping to mean that something actually sold for more than it will later. Buyer's who visit lofts with me can attest to my beliefs that some lofts are overpriced. In 2005, there was a fork in the road, so to speak, where a group of developer's continued on doing what they had been doing for the past several years regarding new construction pricing. (See my post back then, Loft Pricing: 401) A newer group of loft developers sort of tested the market that year with limited success. What the heck, it was a boom year. Why not?

What happens in St. Louis real estate? The market rate seems to slowly increase.

To say that the prices are dropping to me means that the market rate has dropped. That happens with gas, bananas and beer, but not usually real estate. To see artificially high "list prices" drop does not mean that pricing has dropped. It just means that someone is trying to get real.

Point 2, Are lofts being built for the next generation? My answer would be officially, "sort of, but mostly not."

To me, some of the developers that are really trying the "youth marketing" thing are the same ones that are over-pricing, under-sizing, and not doing as well in the numbers game.

Despite all this, the urban renaissance in St. Louis marches on.

A good source of real estate blogs.

Winter Loft Sales Pick Up

Looking at loft sales in January and February may not really look like much. 21 Sales. Big Deal.

All things considered, it's a pretty solid winter.

Think about it-most closings for January and February occured due to house shoppers in December. While "the holidays" really only make up a day or two, business life pretty much ends by mid-December. The focus for many is on office parties, travel and gifts. Despite that, we kept relatively busy these months. Other than the penthouses at the Banker's Lofts and a few Marquette units, most buildings that were MLS listed had already had most of their closings by the end of December.

The market is has already turned the corner into the Spring, but here are the winter sales as listed in the MLS:

2020 Washington #401----------------------------$170,000
1720 Chouteau #202------------------------------$173,000
2020 Washington #313----------------------------$179,000
1136 Washington #209----------------------------$179,000
1136 Washington #612----------------------------$182,000
300 N Broadway #1504----------------------------$194,650
1123 Washington #310-----------------------------$196,000
1136 Washington #610----------------------------$203,000
300 N Broadway #1008----------------------------$209,900
1123 Washington #510-----------------------------$214,240
2020 Washington #406----------------------------$217,500
1123 Washington #504-----------------------------$219,000
300 N Broadway #1101----------------------------$231,900
300 N Broadway #1102----------------------------$235,900
901 Washington #305-----------------------------$274,506
703 N 13th St #407--------------------------------$310,000
315 N 11th St. #902--------------------------------$349,900
400 S 14th St. #1018------------------------------$444,900
901 Washington #704-----------------------------$497,150
901 Washington #701-----------------------------$530,871
901 Washington #703-----------------------------$776,539

Grease is the Word

In the press downtown, City Museum really gets its due. Maybe I just don't read enough news about the area, but one thing I never really hear enough about his how fantastic the Art Loft Theater is.

Last year I saw Batboy and vowed to attend the theater for every production. I failed miserably.

I finally got back last night and had a blast watching the play/musical Grease. When the movie Grease was came out back in the 70's, my interest in Theater was limited to Kiss and Ozzie Osbourne. The stage version was so much more than what I remember from the movie. The cast was fantastic. The script was hysterical.

Once again I vow to get to the next production, The Clockwork Orange in April or May. I can't say enough about one of downtown-wests greatest assets.

Y2K

I finally was able to attend one of the meetings of the housing committee of the Downtown St. Louis Partnership yesterday. We joined the partnership going on 2 years ago, and for some reason that commmittee wasn't meeting, or didn't need new members or something strange. It was good to be present to hear what the discussion is about.

There was a banker, a developer, a builder, a commercial realtor, me and my assistant, and the folks from the partnership--a fairly diverse group.

We talked about our good occupancy and sale rate, we talked about the Downtown living Tour, we talked about the special Downtown section of the St. Louis Magazine. What really got the bulk of discussion is the new development coming online this year.

Kevin Farrell, at the partnership said that in the next year, with all the new construction going on, there will be almost 2000 condos available for pre-sale in the downtown area. Wow! Should loft buyer's be concerned about a "glut" as the Post Disgrace would have us believe?

The interesting thing about construction is it's financing.

Construction fincnancing has its own requirements that protect the lender and its investment. Our discussion at the meeting touched on the point that lenders are looking to firm up those requirements even more in the coming months. What is required to really get going on one of these monumental construction projects is solid sales base: something like 30% of the lofts must be under contract in order for the bank to begin disbursements for construction to begin. More benchmarks in sales and occupancy are sometimes thrown in to the process down the road too.

All these bank stipulations protect the banks, but they also protect the neigborhood and the consumers from the "over-building" myth that has been propagated by downtown naysayers since lofts were first introduced into St. Louis.

Downtown "Government Day"

The Downtown St. Louis Residents Association will be holding a meeting with the Mayor on Tuesday March 6th--6:30pm at the Tap Room. Don't miss the opportunity to represent downtown, meet the mayor, and make sure that the matters affecting downtown residents are voiced in this special opportunity.

Beyond the meeting with the mayor, as most of us know from the all of those hideous, non-real estate signs out there, that it's also the day of the primary elections. The 6th Ward, which makes up a substantial chunk of the Downtown West, will be holding an election for a new alderman. The current alderman for the 6th Ward, Lewis Reed is challenging for the Aldermanic Presidents post. It will be an important day for all the residents in the city to show up and participate.

From my position, I see how so much of the progress all over the city has taken place because of the businesses and investors that are willing to invest in the city neighborhoods. Sometimes what the headlines don't pick up is the countless hours our public servants work, the ideas and leadership they share, and the direction they continue to see for our city.

Tuesday is the day to "Suit Up and Show Up" and hopefully make the best choices for our continued success.

Politics of Deception

The rash of articles trashing the real estate market and more recently the mortgage business has been bizarre.

Every day this week an article in the Wall Street Journal has discussed how mortgage defaults are on the rise and that banks are not lending as much to the "sub prime" market.

Fine. Big Deal.

Yesterday the article was about how lending may even get more stringent to in the alternative markets.

Of course, the emphasis of the article was how this will continue to cast a dark cloud on the real estate market.

My only problem is that this series of articles has done absolutely everything to take the focus off the major slide the stock market is taking this week (remember, Dow Jones is the publisher of the Wall Street Journal).

Interesting though. I have a closing today that almost couldn't happen. Why? The all three title companies were too busy (read: lots of real estate deals closing).

The "East of Boyle" Phenomenon

Next week's issue of the St. Louis Business Journal will focus its special section on the topic "Highway 40: the Price of Progress."

I'm intrigued by this topic. People have been talking about the subject for months. Many look at 2007 as the year of reprieve. We thought all along that the contruction would "really" begin this year. Not just a few lane closures here and there, but the road would seriously be closed.

Many professionals thought that 2007 would be a busy year because all the people sitting on the fence from last year. In the city, East of Boyle, I predict a population surge.

City living has been the new trend, but this year will see the final shuffle before the highway shuts down. It will be interesting to see what the Business Journals take is for this regional event. My prediction is that I'll keep hearing what many of my recent buyer's have been saying, "just make sure I'm east of Boyle."

Fundamentally Flawed

There was a pretty big stir created the other day about downtown living when Cordish Company's plan for the new Ballpark Village was presented leaving the residential condos as an optional component in phase 1, based on market conditions.

Riddhi Trivedi-St. Clair, wrote a follow up article loaded with misguided speculation from within the real estate industry. All sources mentioned had one thing in commmon; none of them work in the downtown loft market. None of them sell lofts, and most likely, none of them live downtown. One person quoted was a developer from a competing neighborhood.

The overall slant to the article was a popular misconception; that there are too many lofts. The fact that some developer's are holding an inventory or that some projects struggle was presented as if it's a bad thing. When I work with buyer's downtown, they get my free analysis of pricing, and unfortunately not all lofts are priced where then need to be to sell.

My bottom line: Downtown's growth and renaissance over the past few years is a WONDERFUL THING! While the post disgrace may try to stir up controversy as a way of boosting its plummeting sales, it shouldn't be a concern. The downtown real estate market has growth, appreiation and constantly improving services.

Downtown Sales in December

Around Christmas, I always found myself watching Miracle on 34th Street with my family. A Santa that buy's real estate is something I can really get into.

This December, Santa's gift to the downtown real estate market may have been a decent drop in the interest rates and the end of all the bubble nonsense. Who know's?

Here are the sales as reported on the MLS for the month of December.

1123 Washington #402-----------------------------------------$154,900
2020 Washington #303-----------------------------------------$166,500
1136 Washington #310-----------------------------------------$177,000
1709 Washington #600-----------------------------------------$184,900
1720 Choteau #305--------------------------------------------$185,000
721 N 17th St #402---------------------------------------------$217,700
1136 Washington #406-----------------------------------------$218,500
1619 Washington #304-----------------------------------------$234,900
2201 Locust St. #410------------------------------------------$235,588
901 Washington #603-----------------------------------------$251,865
901 Washington #506-----------------------------------------$254,752
901 Washington #611-----------------------------------------$290,000
901 Washington #702-----------------------------------------$355,265
901 Washington #501-----------------------------------------$355,677
901 Washington #609-----------------------------------------$384,207
901 Washington #401-----------------------------------------$399,279
1123 Washington #203-----------------------------------------$423,345
1123 Washington #203-----------------------------------------$450,000
1136 Washington #906-----------------------------------------$525,000

Check out all the details here!

2006 Market Data Pierces Bubble Myth Downtown

In 2006, Scottrade bought the naming rights to the Kiel Center. I think the stock brokerage industry may have bought most of the media too. All the talk of the real estate bubble finally bursting forced its way into the psyche of prospective homebuyer's everywhere. They say all's well that ends well, and that really describes our downtown real estate market for the year 2006.

Year--#Sold-------$/Sq Ft----Ave.Days on Market-------Ave.Price
2006----221-------$164---------------93--------------$223,063
2005-----121----------$156-----------------209-----------------$256,678
2004------84----------$141-----------------233-----------------$187,976
2003------53----------$135-----------------170-----------------$214,890
2002------25----------$121-----------------248-----------------$186,674
2001------19----------$104-----------------194-----------------$233,908


The above data was taken off the local multiple listings service. This service, of course, doesn't include all the downtown sales in this past year, or in any year. I do agree with the trend that more lofts are selling and downtown population continues to increase.

My personal experience this past year was working with fewer first-time home buyer's and more mature and experienced buyer's. While there has been a great deal of talk about the I-64 reconstruction amongst buyer's, it seems that fact hasn't been the primary motivator of our typical buyer. As this year continues and lane closures begin, I'd be suprised if the number of buyer's with traffic concerns didn't increase exponentially.

One interesting piece of data that isn't included above, was that the average size of unit dropped from 1690 sq ft to 1453 sq ft. This is undoubtedly because of the number of smaller new construction units hitting the market this year. That trend should continue as The Adler Lofts and Ventana lofts near completion.

Look for more Downtown St. Louis Loft information throughout the year. Exciting things are going to happen.

Downtown St. Louis Partnership Meeting sets record

Today's meeting of the Downtown St. Louis Partnership and BOMA reportedly had a record attendance this year. The banquet room at the newly renovated Ballpark Hilton was packed. Never before has the topic been so pertinent to so many people. The highway 64/40 re-construction project doesn't seem to bother the people who have already embraced urban living. The majority remaining is running scared.

The meeting today seemed to cover mostly information that has already been made public. Of interest was the question and answer period where there seemed to be great support for incorporating plans for another Metrolink extension along with the highway plan.

The way I see it, with so much money going into this project and it having such a long term effect on our region, why not include mass transit? Avoiding the issue seems short sighted.

All and all it was a good program. The schedule and details presented can also be found on the MoDOT website.

False Advertising

There's been a trend in real estate advertising lately. Even though its both strange and anoying, I've been hesitant to criticize my fellow realtors.

There has been an increasing tendency for people with little or no sales in the downtown area to advertise themselves specialists in lofts or downtown experts.

As a realtor, I can look up the number of sales an agent has made downtown within a minute or two. While we were hesitant to proclaim any special knowledge of downtown, after several million in loft sales, it seemed appropriate. What's hard to understand is how anyone would advertise as a specialist in an area that they've never worked in.

There may be some that think this is about a fear of competition. The idea of more realtors entering the downtown market is really exciting to me actually. It means that there are people trying to learn the different variables that we have to deal with downtown that aren't a part of suburban real estate. It also might mean the end of hearing stories of realtors trying to dissuade thier clients from looking downtown by saying, "you don't want to go down there." Lastly, it means that when the developer's find other areas to develop, that there will be a community of professoinals available to keep the real estate market moving downtown.

To all the aspiring "downtown specialists," lets keep it real.

Dog Park on Hold Again

We're going to have a dog park, OK! Sometimes delays can be a good thing. Aparently there's a collaborative plan by a few residential developer's that would support infrastructure improvements around their developments. The plan is through a State program called MODESA Lucas Park, where we thought we could build a dog park, is one of the locations. The plan sounds like a great thing and I'm really excited about it. The hope is that being a state funded project doesn't limit the scope or timeframe of what could be done.
We'll be having another dog park meeting sometime in mid to late January to regroup and see what we can do to get something going now. In the meantime, we are in contact with developer's involved with the MODESA plans and might have some positive influence on what these developments can bring to the downtown community.

Tragic Accident at Syndicate

This morning a client forwarded this to us. What a terrible shame. Our prayer's go out to the family of this man.
News video of Syndicate accident.

Downtown Sales Surge-Interest Rates drop

With the Holiday's fast approaching, one wouldn't think that we would be experiencing a spike in sales activity downtown.

Of course, home sales have always been more impacted by the interest rates than just about anything. Rates have plummeted of late and are hovering around the lowest rates of the year. Weekly rate averages.

During a "Buyer's market" the supply is usually good too. So with plenty of selection, rock bottom interest rates, and lots of motivated seller's, Now is really a great time to buy.

Cheap Publicity

A couple of months back, we all heard that the Nationwide Crime statistics were available from Morgan Quitno Press in Kansas. The reason we all heard was because they had innacurately listed us as the most dangerous city in America. What a joke.

Granted, we all want to see crime reduced. With all the clean up going on throughout the city, and the large influx of people moving into the city, we all expect a positive impact on safety.

The bottom line though, is that the reports released during the World Series games in St. Louis were not an accurate portrayal, and were basically an attempt to sell books. Channel 5 sent out a reporter to ask a few questions. The televised interview really shows one thing: these reports should be the work of trained criminologists, not used to sell books.

Enjoy.

Here's the video of the interview.

Ultimate Model: Ballpark Village

Last nights meeting at the Cordish offices was an eye opening event. The past year or so, coverage of Ballpark Village has been informative but not adequate to give me a real feel of the neighborhood.

Our meeting was another example of the hard work of the Downtown Residents Association and their efforts to help people get knowledgable about downtown.

The meeting was led by Chase Martin of Cordish, and Bill DeWitt III of the Cardinals. I loved the way they described each block and street within the village as having a different focus. Starting with the "family block" at 8th and Clark to the "Live Music Block", to the "Cardinals Nation Block" and what they were looking to do to keep the village alive during offseason months. I found photos of the model online here.

Our interest being mostly the large residential component, I found that Phase 1 of Ballpark Village will include between 250-350 residential units and will be completed by approximately 2009. According to the current plans, these will be units above the currently planned retail. The three towers wouldn't be started until after the footprints of the buildings are complete. These tower's would house the bulk of the residential. After the meeting we discussed the residential component--which due to the mass of amenities in the area--would be priced higher than anything we've seen thus far downtown.

With Park Pacific being sold at $250-350 per square foot, we can only assume that a place in Ballpark Village won't be a value. I pressed for a figure, but left with the sound reasoning that they didn't want to release any number until a realistic construction estimate could be made. So we'll probably be waiting a while.

Value or not....I've got my place picked out already.