Beauty and the Beast

Two subjects that often come up in my day to day work with loft buyer's in St. Louis: The subprime mortgage meltdown and the number of new construction lofts downtown.

Interestingly, the two subjects are related.

The beast is that loft buyer's that sign contracts for new construction often times have a significant wait before the finished product is available. The lending industry is always changing its guidelines. It's a daily thing, but lately it's become more dramatic.

When I reserved my loft at the Dorsa, I worked under the assumption that I would use 100% financing via a conventional loan and then a "piggyback" 20% loan. Who knew. Today, "piggyback" loans are part of the banking industry's steping away from the sub-prime lending business.

The positive thing, as a rule, is that most loft buyer's have exceptional credit and can still qualify for this type of lending. One lender I spoke to today that works a lot downtown said that some of the larger banks were offering incentive discount financing to counteract all the negative hype.

The beauty. Where do we start?

As a rule, traditional bank underwriting says, "If it makes sense, do it." That type of conventional wisdom gave way to the lending mantra of the new millenium, "If it doesn't make sense, do it--or else our competition will". This overindulgence by banks seeking growth and profits is not just about home buying as the news media may have us thinking. Easy money has been a big part of the business world as well, especially in the world of merger's and aquisitions and development.

In development, getting financing is viewed that the plan provided has been reviewed and is acceptable. That it will be a good project since the bank approved the idea and is giving the money. In our era though, banks overly eager to lend has put developer's in some places where they have inventory that they can't sell. The plan just didn't live up to its vision.

Prior to the recent media outrage over subprime mortgages, lenders quietly started tightening up on their standards. Developer's used to require only 25% of the building to be reserved before construction lending began. Now developer's are faced with having 40% UNDER CONTRACTS. Hopefully along these lines the contracts will be scrutinized a bit more carefully as well. Having the developer sell units to themselves or their dead relatives shouldn't fly.

In last weeks St. Louis Business Journal, a decent article described the supply and demand of lofts downtown. The only problem with the article, was that it played to they hype, and it failed to recount the recent history of developments in St. Louis.
Out of the 1528 units projected to be completed between 2008 and 2010, how many of these projects will succeed with the tighter lending practices? How many will be delayed by 1-2 years? How many will be revamped into a more marketable Class A office space?

Looking at the city's development website, or past copies of the "Downtown Report" published by the Post Dispatch, we see lots of projects that are slated to be completed but due to the market, are pushed off or cancelled all together. Pyramid principal John Steffen was quoted as saying that "the final decision (on whether a project is residential, condo, commercial, etc.) will be based on market demand."

The bottom line is that the so called credit crunch is a GOOD THING! It may sting for a bit, but the result is financial responsibility and sanity, and that's just what the doctor ordered.

A Good Shortlist to Make

I got a call from a telemarketer today. When asking about business questions, he commented that he was interested in becoming a real estate investor. Currently in LA, he asked what the local market was like.

Apparently it's not that bad.

Forbes magazine published their list of top seller's markets and based on thier criteria, St. Louis made the top 5. Not bad at all.

Of course, a buyer's or seller's market can be as specific as a single block. St. Louis has generally been a good safe bet in terms of real estate investment values.

Thoughts on homelessness?

The mayor's blog has a mini poll that may be of some interest to the downtown community.

Of interest to me was that a majority of people didn't favor a "crackdown" on charities that feed homeless in public places.

It seems that this question may be handled differently by the majority if the public park in question was one they took their kids to, or was located across the street from their home. Also the wording, "cracking down on charities", that just sounds wrong, doesn't it?

The rennaisance downtown will recieve a substantial boost when the city finds a way to move the public feeding at Lucas Park. After all, we may not be able to completely eliminate homelessness, but should we be showcasing it?

Participate in this poll though. The voice of downtown should be heard.

St. Louis Downtown Living Tour and Kayak Extravaganza

Some people like rain. They say that it helps things grow. After the downpour and intense wind destroyed our display tent, we thought about throwing in the towel. Who would still be around?

Yesterday's tour seemed to go into hyperdrive after the rains. We moved inside the Jewel Lofts entry at 1511 Washington and went to work.

This year I was impressed by the number of boomers that were wanting to be downtown. The Jewel Loft Condominiums, just being released, seemed to have a large collection of people with serious interest. More to follow on these spaces, but in general, the size and quality of finish of these "soft lofts" stand out from what else is available downtown.

The tour seems to be less and less about the neighborhood and the completed lofts than it used to be. I remember when the partnership had to ask residents to be a part of the tour--which is what many other areas still do. Now the tour is more like a jaunt through the many showrooms looking exclusively at new construction.

One comment that stuck with me from yesterday was from a downtown resident that said that many of the participants knew only of thier project but virtually nothing about downtown St. Louis. That may be the case, but this tour I'm seeing that there is less and less being put into "window dressing" for the area and more and more that downtown is standing in it's own light. Plastered pictures covering up board ups has been replaced by new restaurants and retail and, of course LOFTS.

The tour starts today at NOON. The weather should be clear. I hope to see you there.

St. Louis' Loss

St. Louis lost a friend yesterday. Marti Frumhoff, a colleague and part of the driving force of the St. Louis renaissance passed away.

She was one of my hero's, and will be sadly missed by all--whether we knew her or not. That's just the type of person she was.

Services will be held at Central Reform Congregation tomorrow (5/18/07) at 1pm.
5020 Waterman Ave.
Saint Louis, MO 63108
Phone: (314) 361-1564
Fax: (314) 361-2842

Virtual Memorial page

St. Louis Loft Sales in April

It's about time to start taking my carpal tunnel treatment. Sales have been a bit crazy in the past few weeks, rightfully so. There isn't a better feeling than spending time downtown in the spring and summer. Everyone wants a piece of the action. Of course, highway construction could have a bit to do with peoples buying decisions. As lane closures and gridlock continue to build, the "downtown living bug" could reach epidemic proportions. Either way, the spring selling season is upon us and home sales are on the rise.

Here are the loft sales for last month:

1709 Washington #502----------------------------$153,000
2035 Washington #407----------------------------$164,940
2035 Washington #408----------------------------$166,572
2035 Washington #202----------------------------$167,024
1136 Washington #208----------------------------$171,000
2035 Washington #308----------------------------$172,099
1136 Washington #712----------------------------$190,000
2035 Washington #208----------------------------$190,300 YEAH JH!
1136 Washington #400----------------------------$197,000
1136 Washington #410----------------------------$218,000
1136 Washington #704----------------------------$229,000
1123 Washington #503----------------------------$229,900
1123 Washington #508----------------------------$231,000
703 N 13th #404 --------------------------------$265,000
721 N 17th #401-------------------------------$278,500 WHO ROCKS THE PARTY?
1123 Washington #218----------------------------$290,920
400 S 14th #1218--------------------------------$391,500
1121 Locust #302--------------------------------$425,825

Average Price per Square Foot=$178.63

Dear Young Professional,

"I have a question for you - I'm a "young professional," as we are often called, and am considering buying a loft downtown. My main concern is that if I want to sell the place in a few years in exchange for a place in the burbs, there won't be a market for it with all the new lofts that are being developed and the limited sales at this point in time. As the closest thing to a resident expert, what are your thoughts?"

My thoughts are varied. First of all, the fear that downtown St. Louis will be developed beyond sustainable population levels is a misconception. Downtown development is market driven. While the real estate market has been slower in the past year, most developments that have offered a good product for a reasonable price have continued to sell. Developments that are over-priced or lack certain features have struggled. My primary thought is BUY SMART! A good value will hold up regardless of what the market is doing.

My second thought, as a real estate professional, is that home ownership of any kind generally doesn't usually yield a positive return on investment within just a couple years. Our lofts have been an exception to that general rule for the past few years, particularly if they are purchased as "pre-construction." The only problem in that scheme is that most 1st time buyer's are wanting to buy to have a place to live and can't wait the year plus time frame for a pre-construction building to be completed.

Overall, my thought may seem biased, but work with a specialist (buyer's agent). The development companies that build lofts almost always have a sales force that is more than willing to assist you in buying THEIR product from start to finish. A skilled Realtor will usually expose a buyer to all possibilities downtown including new construction. This is free, and as a process, it seems to educate the buyer about the entire market. I generally listen to a buyer and really try to get them to evaluate all areas too. We've worked with potential loft buyer's that end up using us to buy homes in St. Charles or elsewhere in the St. Louis area. Sometimes prospective buyer's decide that renting for another year will work.

Lastly, after living downtown, the thought of trading a loft for a place in the 'burbs will make you nauseous. You'll probably decide on a house in one of the other fantastic city neighborhoods instead.

Entertainment Tonight

Postcards have been popping up around downtown for the 10th Street Block Parties. It's been kind of low key. Since the weather was so bad, it's inception was rained out and pushed to tonight. It will be in the City Grocer's parking lot at 10th & Olive from 5-8pm. Stop on by.

Calling All Green Thumbs......And Everyone Else!

Spring in Downtown St. Louis is fantastic for (at least) two reasons. Awesome Cardinal baseball, and the gardening work of Urban Roots/Gateway Greens. With the past few weeks of downturns in the Cardinal Nation, we're really going to have to rely more on the gardeners.

This weekend is the date!!!

I got a letter from Mayor Slay asking for money yesterday, and found the website today to contribute the more valuable and more rewarding thing: TIME. My favorite word is BOTH.

As Mayor Slay mentioned, our work to help beautify the city by planting a few gardens has a positive effect on our economy, our own experience, and most importantly, REAL ESTATE VALUE!!! Let's all get out and plant. CYA there!

Downtown's Dump

Yesterday I was downtown with some clients and saw something disturbing. A Jefferon County sherrif's deputy was dropping someone off at the New Life Evangelistic Center along with their belongings.

Whenever I have heard St. Louis City officials address the topic of homelessness, they always mention that we should encourage other areas to establish services to assist the homeless so that they all don't have to come to downtown St. Louis.

I would encourage all readers of this post (both of you) to drop the following people a line. In reading the Jefferson County web page a bit, they discuss the same crap that any other county website does, providing services to residents and the like. In this case, the service is a ride in a police car across 2 different county lines so that the service becomes our problem.

All this aside, Downtown is still the place to be.

Jeferson County Sheriff

Oliver "Glen" Boyer

Jefferson County Commissioner

Chuck Banks

St. Louis City Population Slant

The downtown lofts were mentioned in a NY Times article that generally seemed to have a negative slant on our little urban renaissance here in St. Louis. What a shocker.

In question was whether the city population is dropping.

The writer seemed to be framing the piece to imply that because St. Louis had goofy report from Morgan Quitno Press, had police officer's involved in allegedly criminal activity (taking World Series tickets from scalper's) and schools that have lost accreditation--that people have continued to flee from the city.

The writer had the same critical style of the Post Disgrace writer that tried to trash the downtown neighborhood a few months back. Saying of city officials "Their optimism is based on a flurry of downtown development since 2000, including hundreds of loft condominiums, boutiques and restaurants." While the downtown neighborhoods have really been the crown jewel of St. Louis development, the development in Lafayette Square, Central West End, DeBaliviere Place, Benton Park, Tower Grove, McKinley Heights, Fox Park, Old North St. Louis and many other areas has been equally impressive. Areas that were riddled with "For Rent" signs today are owner-occupied, and examples of urban renewal.

When I think of the prospective drop in population, I think of the loss of the many residents of downtown's Ford Apartments and the much smaller population that will replace the former residents in when the building is re-opened as large luxury condominiums.

The rebuilding process taking place in most neigbhorhoods continues. Are we really loosing in the population game or do we just have another disgruntled Met's fan?

It's true. City services such as police and public education need to continue to improve. From what I've seen, it won't be long.

PS. For a shirt with the above emblem, visit STL-STYLE online

Fallacies of Public Perception

I recently got a great comment from a nameless fellow blogger that seemed to be a perfect example (despite the massive run-on sentence) of some of the misinformation that I hear too often about downtown real estate.

Prices are dropping too! I know you're on the inside, but I'm one of those young up and comers so to speak that these lofts are suppose to target, yet no one I talk to would move downtown including me and I work downtown and look at these everyday.

I consider prices dropping to mean that something actually sold for more than it will later. Buyer's who visit lofts with me can attest to my beliefs that some lofts are overpriced. In 2005, there was a fork in the road, so to speak, where a group of developer's continued on doing what they had been doing for the past several years regarding new construction pricing. (See my post back then, Loft Pricing: 401) A newer group of loft developers sort of tested the market that year with limited success. What the heck, it was a boom year. Why not?

What happens in St. Louis real estate? The market rate seems to slowly increase.

To say that the prices are dropping to me means that the market rate has dropped. That happens with gas, bananas and beer, but not usually real estate. To see artificially high "list prices" drop does not mean that pricing has dropped. It just means that someone is trying to get real.

Point 2, Are lofts being built for the next generation? My answer would be officially, "sort of, but mostly not."

To me, some of the developers that are really trying the "youth marketing" thing are the same ones that are over-pricing, under-sizing, and not doing as well in the numbers game.

Despite all this, the urban renaissance in St. Louis marches on.

A good source of real estate blogs.

Winter Loft Sales Pick Up

Looking at loft sales in January and February may not really look like much. 21 Sales. Big Deal.

All things considered, it's a pretty solid winter.

Think about it-most closings for January and February occured due to house shoppers in December. While "the holidays" really only make up a day or two, business life pretty much ends by mid-December. The focus for many is on office parties, travel and gifts. Despite that, we kept relatively busy these months. Other than the penthouses at the Banker's Lofts and a few Marquette units, most buildings that were MLS listed had already had most of their closings by the end of December.

The market is has already turned the corner into the Spring, but here are the winter sales as listed in the MLS:

2020 Washington #401----------------------------$170,000
1720 Chouteau #202------------------------------$173,000
2020 Washington #313----------------------------$179,000
1136 Washington #209----------------------------$179,000
1136 Washington #612----------------------------$182,000
300 N Broadway #1504----------------------------$194,650
1123 Washington #310-----------------------------$196,000
1136 Washington #610----------------------------$203,000
300 N Broadway #1008----------------------------$209,900
1123 Washington #510-----------------------------$214,240
2020 Washington #406----------------------------$217,500
1123 Washington #504-----------------------------$219,000
300 N Broadway #1101----------------------------$231,900
300 N Broadway #1102----------------------------$235,900
901 Washington #305-----------------------------$274,506
703 N 13th St #407--------------------------------$310,000
315 N 11th St. #902--------------------------------$349,900
400 S 14th St. #1018------------------------------$444,900
901 Washington #704-----------------------------$497,150
901 Washington #701-----------------------------$530,871
901 Washington #703-----------------------------$776,539

Grease is the Word

In the press downtown, City Museum really gets its due. Maybe I just don't read enough news about the area, but one thing I never really hear enough about his how fantastic the Art Loft Theater is.

Last year I saw Batboy and vowed to attend the theater for every production. I failed miserably.

I finally got back last night and had a blast watching the play/musical Grease. When the movie Grease was came out back in the 70's, my interest in Theater was limited to Kiss and Ozzie Osbourne. The stage version was so much more than what I remember from the movie. The cast was fantastic. The script was hysterical.

Once again I vow to get to the next production, The Clockwork Orange in April or May. I can't say enough about one of downtown-wests greatest assets.

Y2K

I finally was able to attend one of the meetings of the housing committee of the Downtown St. Louis Partnership yesterday. We joined the partnership going on 2 years ago, and for some reason that commmittee wasn't meeting, or didn't need new members or something strange. It was good to be present to hear what the discussion is about.

There was a banker, a developer, a builder, a commercial realtor, me and my assistant, and the folks from the partnership--a fairly diverse group.

We talked about our good occupancy and sale rate, we talked about the Downtown living Tour, we talked about the special Downtown section of the St. Louis Magazine. What really got the bulk of discussion is the new development coming online this year.

Kevin Farrell, at the partnership said that in the next year, with all the new construction going on, there will be almost 2000 condos available for pre-sale in the downtown area. Wow! Should loft buyer's be concerned about a "glut" as the Post Disgrace would have us believe?

The interesting thing about construction is it's financing.

Construction fincnancing has its own requirements that protect the lender and its investment. Our discussion at the meeting touched on the point that lenders are looking to firm up those requirements even more in the coming months. What is required to really get going on one of these monumental construction projects is solid sales base: something like 30% of the lofts must be under contract in order for the bank to begin disbursements for construction to begin. More benchmarks in sales and occupancy are sometimes thrown in to the process down the road too.

All these bank stipulations protect the banks, but they also protect the neigborhood and the consumers from the "over-building" myth that has been propagated by downtown naysayers since lofts were first introduced into St. Louis.

Downtown "Government Day"

The Downtown St. Louis Residents Association will be holding a meeting with the Mayor on Tuesday March 6th--6:30pm at the Tap Room. Don't miss the opportunity to represent downtown, meet the mayor, and make sure that the matters affecting downtown residents are voiced in this special opportunity.

Beyond the meeting with the mayor, as most of us know from the all of those hideous, non-real estate signs out there, that it's also the day of the primary elections. The 6th Ward, which makes up a substantial chunk of the Downtown West, will be holding an election for a new alderman. The current alderman for the 6th Ward, Lewis Reed is challenging for the Aldermanic Presidents post. It will be an important day for all the residents in the city to show up and participate.

From my position, I see how so much of the progress all over the city has taken place because of the businesses and investors that are willing to invest in the city neighborhoods. Sometimes what the headlines don't pick up is the countless hours our public servants work, the ideas and leadership they share, and the direction they continue to see for our city.

Tuesday is the day to "Suit Up and Show Up" and hopefully make the best choices for our continued success.

Politics of Deception

The rash of articles trashing the real estate market and more recently the mortgage business has been bizarre.

Every day this week an article in the Wall Street Journal has discussed how mortgage defaults are on the rise and that banks are not lending as much to the "sub prime" market.

Fine. Big Deal.

Yesterday the article was about how lending may even get more stringent to in the alternative markets.

Of course, the emphasis of the article was how this will continue to cast a dark cloud on the real estate market.

My only problem is that this series of articles has done absolutely everything to take the focus off the major slide the stock market is taking this week (remember, Dow Jones is the publisher of the Wall Street Journal).

Interesting though. I have a closing today that almost couldn't happen. Why? The all three title companies were too busy (read: lots of real estate deals closing).

The "East of Boyle" Phenomenon

Next week's issue of the St. Louis Business Journal will focus its special section on the topic "Highway 40: the Price of Progress."

I'm intrigued by this topic. People have been talking about the subject for months. Many look at 2007 as the year of reprieve. We thought all along that the contruction would "really" begin this year. Not just a few lane closures here and there, but the road would seriously be closed.

Many professionals thought that 2007 would be a busy year because all the people sitting on the fence from last year. In the city, East of Boyle, I predict a population surge.

City living has been the new trend, but this year will see the final shuffle before the highway shuts down. It will be interesting to see what the Business Journals take is for this regional event. My prediction is that I'll keep hearing what many of my recent buyer's have been saying, "just make sure I'm east of Boyle."

Fundamentally Flawed

There was a pretty big stir created the other day about downtown living when Cordish Company's plan for the new Ballpark Village was presented leaving the residential condos as an optional component in phase 1, based on market conditions.

Riddhi Trivedi-St. Clair, wrote a follow up article loaded with misguided speculation from within the real estate industry. All sources mentioned had one thing in commmon; none of them work in the downtown loft market. None of them sell lofts, and most likely, none of them live downtown. One person quoted was a developer from a competing neighborhood.

The overall slant to the article was a popular misconception; that there are too many lofts. The fact that some developer's are holding an inventory or that some projects struggle was presented as if it's a bad thing. When I work with buyer's downtown, they get my free analysis of pricing, and unfortunately not all lofts are priced where then need to be to sell.

My bottom line: Downtown's growth and renaissance over the past few years is a WONDERFUL THING! While the post disgrace may try to stir up controversy as a way of boosting its plummeting sales, it shouldn't be a concern. The downtown real estate market has growth, appreiation and constantly improving services.